Commercial trucks encounter country III cost difficulties

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In the first quarter of this year, the commercial vehicle market saw a rapid growth in production and sales under the stimulus of the National III deadline. The sales growth of commercial vehicles nationwide was 24.06%, which was better than the growth rate of the same period of last year. Among them, the sales growth of trucks was the most obvious, and almost all the truck companies had achieved significant growth. However, the arrival of the National III emission limit, the early release of sales in the first half of the year and the decline in truck sales in the second half of the year seem to be a consensus.

In accordance with the original plan of the State Environmental Protection Administration, starting July 1, 2008, China will fully implement the National Vehicle III emission standards nationwide and stop sales and registration of light vehicles that only meet the National II emission standards. Commercial trucks from the country II to the country III, the technical upgrading has an essential change, the need to change the mechanical fuel injection system into an electronic control system, is a new upgrade of the engine and its emission control technology.

Price increase!

At present, domestic commercial trucks mostly use diesel fuel as their fuel, and current automotive diesel standards lag behind those of motor vehicles. Among them, the main indicator - sulfur content is 500ppm, while the national III standard requires about 350ppm of the sulfur content of the diesel fuel. The average sulfur content of the diesel oil currently sold in the market is as high as 800-1000ppm.

In addition to the sulfur content, the nitrogen oxide limit of the National III standard light diesel vehicle is more than three times that of the gasoline vehicle; the particulate emission of the light diesel vehicle is approximately 100 times that of the light gasoline vehicle. These excessively high indexes limit the development of emission control technology for diesel vehicles and emission reduction of pollutants. Therefore, the environmental protection department has always advocated the implementation of the principle of non-differentiated fuel neutrality for gasoline and diesel, and proposed to develop a more stringent "car diesel" standard as soon as possible, but with little success.

In addition to oil products, diesel vehicles have been upgraded from State II to State III, with higher technical requirements and higher costs.

Therefore, at the beginning of December 2007, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers submitted the “Report on the Proposals on the Implementation of State III Emission Standards for Diesel Vehicles to the State Environmental Protection Administration”, saying that the timing for the production consistency of the diesel vehicle implementing country III standards is not ripe yet. The objective environment Not yet available. The report put forward three recommendations, the implementation of new products in accordance with the provisions of the implementation of standards; production consistency management to take a sub-regional, step-by-step progress steadily; as soon as possible to achieve the oil standard and emission standards supporting the unity.

On December 28, 2007, the State Environmental Protection Administration issued a policy statement in response to the above-mentioned report, reiterating the policy requirements for strict implementation of State III emission standards in 2008, but also stated that after approval, the inventory vehicle can be sold until June 30, 2008. .

The impact of the strict promotion of the national III standard timetable and the increase in the price of trucks in the second half of the year have become the consensus of the industry. This is mainly due to the increase in the procurement costs of the State III engine, and the key technologies of the current State III engine fuel system are still mastered. In the hands of parts giants such as Bosch and Denso.

Liu Keqiang, head of Shaanxi Zhongqi's marketing department, said that the company's standard III truck prices have increased by roughly 24,000 yuan.

China National Heavy Duty Truck Group also said that "this year, due to the rise in the prices of steel and other raw materials, enterprises have not fully digested the problem of rising costs. The current truck prices have risen by an average of 2,000 yuan, but the implementation of the second half After standard III, the price will rise by more than 20,000 yuan again.” The heavy-duty truck manufacturer that was listed in both Hong Kong and the Mainland produced 33,000 vehicles in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 41%.

China National Heavy Duty Truck is using the method of attracting key component companies to invest in Jinan to reduce procurement costs. At present, auto parts companies from Germany, Sweden, Italy and other countries have been introduced. China National Heavy Duty Truck assisted in solving the problems of land and personnel. Foreign companies can achieve localized production as long as they bring technology. “The number of National III standard trucks we originally produced was more than 50,000 yuan higher than the national standard II trucks, which is obviously unacceptable to the market.” The above-mentioned person from Sinotruk said, “Now the company’s State III truck prices are only The increase of more than 20,000 yuan is due to the fact that we have reduced costs by applying more localized components to the powertrain."

At the same time, China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation also began to work hard to improve its technical capabilities to reduce technical costs.

It is understood that China National Heavy Duty Truck has been using the high-voltage common rail fuel system of Japan Denso previously, but at present the company has mastered the key technologies such as related monomer pumps and pump nozzles.

The fuel injection system is the key to a higher emission standard engine and is also a major factor affecting its cost. Even the world’s largest independent engine company, Cummins of the United States, cannot rule out Bosch’s cooperation with small and medium-displacement engines.

Winter?

In addition, the early release of the sales volume in the truck market has caused the company's truck sales to be in short supply. At the Beijing International Auto Show that was opened on April 20, some commercial vehicle companies were absent, and the person in charge of the relevant commercial vehicle company stated that the current market sales situation is very good. Therefore, taking into account the participation in exhibitions and other activities, it is necessary to take this opportunity as much as possible. The sale of cars is ready for the arrival of the low sales in the third quarter.

"After sales are released ahead of schedule, there will be a low sales in July-September." But Liu Keqiang believes that "Since the rapid growth of sales in the first two quarters, the annual sales plan of Shaanxi Shouqi will not change."

It is understood that China's heavy truck production and sales target this year is 125,000, and its first quarter of this year will complete sales of 80,000 vehicles, that is, 64% of its annual sales tasks will be completed in the first half of the time, This shows that the national truck sales will be released in the first half of the year.

In addition, due to the implementation of the China III standard and the early release of sales in the first half of the year, the decline in total vehicle sales in the second half of the year may also affect the diesel engine industry for the entire vehicle.

Although Dongfeng Motor's 2007 annual report shows that 71% of its profits come from Dongfeng Cummins's contribution. However, whether Dongfeng Cummins' profitability can be sustained this year still requires market inspection. At present, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle has proposed a plan to fully promote the Cummins III engine in the second half of the year.

In response to a written interview with this newspaper, Dongfeng Cummins said that the negative impact of the new emission standards on sales is international practice. Whether it is North America or Europe, the initial implementation of new regulations will have an impact on market demand. However, Dongfeng Cummins still firmly believes that the development of 2008 must be better than in 2007.

Dongfeng Cummins also stated that for the diesel engine industry, the fluctuation of sales is more dependent on the overall truck sales this year, and truck sales are closely linked with economic growth. From the current economic data, the Chinese economy will continue in 2008. As a result, there will be no major negative impact on the overall sales of commercial vehicles and diesel engines.

The market generally believes that the State III is a double-edged sword that will speed up the survival of the fittest, and the commercial vehicle industry is facing a new trend of integration.
View related topics: State III standard commercial vehicle companies usher in new challenges


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