Oil Energy encounters "price enclosing"
With the soaring global demand in recent years, oil is no longer the fuel for sustainable development. According to the predictions of the US Department of Energy and the World Energy Council, the world's petrochemical energy sources can be mined for 39 years, 60 years for natural gas, and 211 years for coal, and the distribution is mainly in the United States, Canada, Russia, and the Middle East. China is a relatively poor country with oil resources. Some experts estimated that China’s stable oil supply will not exceed 20 years, and it is likely that in 2020 when we will achieve “comprehensive well-beingâ€, it will be the “turning point year†for the loss of oil supply balance.
Not only that, international oil prices have been rising day by day, and currently have exceeded 70 US dollars per barrel. Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices may eventually reach $105 a barrel. More experts have analyzed that developed countries will continue to push oil prices upward as an important means to suppress China, India and other post-development countries. Huge international purchases will cause China’s crude oil to fall into a “price encirclement†similar to the current iron ore market.
High oil prices have a major impact on China's economy. According to rough statistics of related departments, in 2004, the increase in international crude oil prices caused China to pay an additional foreign exchange of more than 8 billion U.S. dollars. This figure is equivalent to the one-year subsistence allowance for 20 million unemployed workers in China.
Finding the only storable renewable energy source
Wu Chuangzhi, executive deputy director of the Institute of Energy Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that biomass energy is China's third largest energy source after coal and oil, accounting for about 15% of all energy consumption. It is the only renewable energy that can be transported and stored. It can be used as fuel or electricity. "Biomass energy is currently used primarily for power generation and conversion to "green gasoline" and "bio-oil."
According to Wu Chuangzhi, the world's annual biomass energy generated through photosynthesis is about 5 billion tons, of which only 1% is used as energy, but it has provided 14% of energy for the world and it has become the world's 1.5 billion rural population. To survive the main energy. It is understood that many countries have proposed biofuel development goals. For example, the European Union proposes that the share of biofuels in transportation fuels will reach 6% by 2010; the United States proposes that the proportion of biofuels in transportation fuels will reach 20% by 2020; Sweden proposes that all fuel ethanol produced from cellulose after 2020 be used. Replace petroleum fuels and completely get rid of dependence on oil. According to Ouyang Pingkai, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and director of the National Biochemical Engineering Technology Research Center, by 2020, 50% of the world's organic chemicals and materials will come from biomass feedstocks.
According to reports, the first step in our country is the conversion of biomass into alternative oil, namely ethanol gasoline. In order to ease the pressure on energy, our government has taken precautions. The research on bio-energy and bio-materials industry has a history of several decades. There has been a certain amount of accumulation in the conversion of biomass energy and related environmental protection technologies.
Wu Chuangzhi believes that China is fully qualified to carry out the industrialization and industrialization of bio-energy and bio-materials on a large scale, and that it can form a scale of trillions of yuan in output by 2020, forming a partial substitution capability at the “oil depletion turning pointâ€.
Good prospects for alternative oil
The International Monetary Fund has once again predicted that by 2030, China’s car ownership will reach 390 million vehicles, about 20 times the current level.
Wu Chuangzhi said that in the case of high international oil prices, the extension of oil to replace the market will be very impressive. It is said that Anhui Fengyuan Group, the world's first biomass feedstock ethylene production plant built in Suzhou, has an annual output of 20,000 tons. Wu Yuxi, head of the plant, said that when the crude oil price is around 35 dollars per barrel, the company can have profits; when the oil price reaches 40 dollars per barrel, the profit of the ton product can reach 5,000 yuan; when the crude oil price exceeds 50 dollars a barrel , Tons of product profit up to 8,000 yuan, the profit rate of up to 35%.
In order to achieve the “three-step†goal, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed four tasks to be carried out in the near future: first, to conduct land resource surveys and assessments and energy crop planting plans; second, to build large-scale non-food biofuel pilot demonstration projects; and thirdly, to establish We will improve the acquisition and distribution system of biofuels and related policies. Fourth, we will strengthen research and development of biofuel technologies and build industrial systems. Wu Chuangzhi said that it can be foreseen that future energy crops will be produced, acquired and circulated under the support of relevant national policies like food crops.
Biomass energy: three steps in the next 15 years
The National Development and Reform Commission recently made a three-phase plan for the development of China's biofuel industry: "Eleventh Five-Year" technology industrialization, "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" to achieve industrial scale, and great development after 2015. It is expected that by 2020, China's biofuel consumption will account for about 15% of all transportation fuels, and establish a biofuel industry with international competitiveness. Biofuels are fuel ethanol and biodiesel produced through biological resources. Previously, the National Development and Reform Commission has proposed in the medium and long-term development plan for renewable energy: In 2010, biofuels will replace 2 million tons of oil each year, and in 2020 biofuel will replace 10 million tons of oil annually.