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A few days ago, the US Energy Information Administration predicted that by 2040, traditional fuel vehicles will still occupy a monopoly position in the automotive market. The agency released the “2014 Energy Outlook†and stated that of the light vehicles sold in the US market in the coming year, as many as 78% of the vehicles are still fuel vehicles. At present, the hybrid and pure electric vehicles that various governments are trying to promote can only reach 1% of the market.
If the U.S. side's predictions come true, the electric cars that have been buzzing in recent years will continue to be overdone and short-lived.
Although the US current electric vehicle market sales performance is not as good as the US government expected, its market performance is still the most prominent country in the world's automotive market.
According to relevant media reports, in the US market in the first 10 months of 2013, the sales of the electric vehicle market including plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles were 77,965 units. However, the current production and sales scale of the electric vehicle market in China has been hovering around 10,000 vehicles.
Therefore, if the electric vehicles in the US market with an annual production and sales scale of nearly 100,000 units cannot achieve the dominance of the future automobile market, the annual production and sales scale of only one tenth of the US market will enable the electric vehicle market to become the future. Is it mainstream?
Since the 1970s, the global oil crisis has caused the automotive industry to enthusiastically pursue energy-saving and new energy vehicle technologies. However, although the energy crisis several times has brought about a large amount of investment in new energy vehicle technologies by various multinational auto companies in the world, the real breakthrough in the market has never been realized.
The only way to achieve a breakthrough in the market is hybrid technology. However, even if Toyota has such a strong advantage in hybrid vehicles, it will only sell a cumulative total of millions of vehicles in the world’s automotive market. Power car products. This is only a small part of the scale of the entire automobile market in the world.
In the 1990s, General Motors introduced the electric vehicle EV1 used in the market. However, although the electric vehicle has existed in the US market for many years, EV1 was eventually forced out of the market.
What is the power in the end that makes electric vehicles always stop at the R&D stage and cannot achieve mass production on a large scale?
Maybe the then American director Chris Payne’s documentary “Who Killed the Electric Car†can tell us the truth. Traditional car manufacturers, as well as oil group companies, may be the "killer" of electric cars.
This time the US Energy Information Administration came to the conclusion that electric vehicles could not dominate the automobile market until 2040, and some of them "same" the viewpoint in this documentary.
The agency believes that the reason why electric cars are unpopular is that car manufacturers are not interested. These automakers prefer to build advanced fuel engines rather than completely change their product lines.
At the same time, the role of the United States in the supply and demand of energy has gradually reduced the importance of the electric vehicle market. Due to the dramatic increase in shale gas extraction in the United States, the United States began to reduce its dependence on external oil resources. The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that the US domestic oil production will increase sharply before 2019.
Therefore, if the current traditional automotive products still occupy the dominant position in the world market, it is also in line with the strategic interests of the United States.
However, from the perspective of China, electric vehicles are precisely the best commercial route for China to achieve overtaking in the corner of the automobile industry.
One of the main reasons is that China has fallen seriously behind the world advanced level in the traditional automotive industry. Even with the support of the Chinese government, the gap between Chinese self-owned brands with more than 10 years of development history and multinational companies is still too large to be compensated in the short term.
In the electric vehicle industry, although China has many backward technologies, compared with the traditional automobile industry, China has a relatively technical advantage in terms of electric vehicles.
This is also in line with China's energy strategy. China’s dependence on foreign oil is increasing. According to the White Paper on China's Energy Policy released by the China State Council Information Office in 2012, China’s foreign energy dependence has risen rapidly in recent years. The degree of dependence on foreign oil has risen from 32% at the beginning of this century to the current 57%.
As China, the world's largest auto market in terms of production and sales, and China, which will have the largest car ownership in the future, lowering foreign dependence on petroleum will make China’s politics and economy more secure. In this sense, China must pay more attention to the development of electric vehicles and the expansion of the market.
It can be said that China and the United States have different strategic considerations in the development of the electric vehicle market.
However, it is very regrettable that China, which needs to make greater achievements in the electric vehicle market, is getting further and further away from the United States in the electric vehicle market.
If we say that the government pays attention, the United States must not compare with China. China's development of new energy vehicles is not just a matter of national importance and policy. Local governments also have dedicated leadership in the development of new energy vehicles.
Obviously, the obstacle to the development of China's electric vehicle market is not that the government does not pay enough attention to it, nor does it mean that the amount of subsidy funds is too small, but that China's policy direction is biased, and even some policies have become an important obstacle to the development of the electric vehicle market.
The biggest obstacle is local protectionism. Due to the local government’s policies more emphasis on supporting local auto companies, and giving discriminatory treatment to foreign auto companies, it is difficult for China’s electric vehicle market to form a unified national market, and each city market is fighting each other and closing each other. It is impossible for a competitive market to produce competitive electric vehicle companies and products.
Even if the country's new demonstration policy for new energy vehicles stipulates that pilot cities must give foreign brands a market share of at least 30%, it is in disguised recognition of the legitimacy of local protection in another 70% of the shares.
The separatism in the market has caused China's electric vehicle manufacturers to find it difficult to effectively expand their production and sales scale, or to disguise the growth of China's outstanding electric vehicle manufacturers and the development of the electric vehicle market.
From an overall national interest perspective, this kind of local protection in China has hindered the electric vehicle market. It not only made it difficult for China’s corner vehicle passing strategy in new energy vehicles to succeed, and it even helped Americans in some respects.
Therefore, China needs to consider revising the current situation in which national subsidies for new energy vehicles are incompatible with local policies, and strive to make China's new energy vehicle market a consistent effort across the country. Only in this way, when Americans are still hoping to maintain the dominance of the traditional fuel vehicle industry and the interests of US oil, China will be able to ensure the success of China's strategy through the success of its new energy vehicle strategy. 