Production tends to be stable and prices oscillate at a high level——Analysis of oil and chemical production and market situation in August

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In August, China's oil and chemical industry production stabilized. According to the latest data bulletin from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, the focus on tracking 64 kinds of bulk products, production of 55 species over the same period last year, accounting for 85.9%, down by 9 species, accounting for 14.1%. Compared with the previous month, there were 36 kinds of declines, accounting for 56.3%. Among them, inorganic chemical products and synthetic materials maintained rapid growth, and chemical fertilizers, pesticides and other agricultural chemicals, and tire growth rate dropped significantly. Specifically in:
--- Oil and gas production remained at a high level In August, crude oil production was 15.533 million tons, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year; natural gas production was 4.06 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. Gasoline production was 4.543 million tons, an increase of 2.2% year-on-year; kerosene production was 983,000 tons, an increase of 25.7% year-on-year; diesel production was 951.9 million tons, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year. The ratio of diesel to diesel reached 2.1, which was a year-on-year increase of 0.1.
--- Decrease in the output of agrochemicals In August, the country produced 4.087 million tons of chemical fertilizers, which was the lowest monthly output since March, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, and the growth rate fell 8.9 points from the previous month. percentage point. Among them, 2.945 million tons of nitrogen fertilizer, an increase of 10.2%; phosphorus 888,000 tons, an increase of 13%; potassium fertilizer 255,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9%. Pesticide production has been declining since March and has dropped to a minimum of 67,000 tons in August from a year earlier, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year. Among them, 30,000 tons of insecticides were flat year-on-year; fungicides were 0.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%; herbicides were 15,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%.
--- Rapid growth of production of basic chemical raw materials In August, the growth of inorganic chemical raw materials continued unabated, and the growth rate of "three acids and two bases" was above 10%. Among them, the growth rates of calcium carbide and ion-exchange membrane caustic soda reached 38.7% and 31.9%, respectively, and the output was 722,000 tons and 306,000 tons, respectively, both hitting a new historical high for a single month. Among organic materials, ethylene production was 669,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.5%; methanol production was 438,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%; glacial acetic acid, architectural coatings and pigments production declined, year-on-year respectively. 2.6%, 7.2% and 1.6%.
--- Rapid increase in the output of synthetic materials In August, the country's synthetic resin production reached 1.906 million tons, which set a record high for a single month and increased 28.8% year-on-year. Among them, PVC production was 555,000 tons, an increase of 32.6%; polyethylene 491,000 tons, an increase of 34%; polypropylene 435 thousand tons, an increase of 14.8%. The output of synthetic rubber was 135,000 tons, an increase of 17.9% year-on-year, but the production of butadiene rubber fell by 7.8%. The output of synthetic fiber was 1.277 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%.
———There was an increase and decrease in rubber products in August. Tire production and growth both fell back. The output was 25.552 million, the lowest level since March, which was a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, an increase of 10% from the previous two months. Percentage or more. The output of radial tires was 12.388 million, an increase of 35.5% over the same period of last year. The production of rubber shoes increased and the output was 105.815 million pairs, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%. In terms of prices, due to the high energy and raw material costs, and the slowdown in downstream demand, under the pressure of the upper and lower part, the market conditions of the products fluctuate greatly, and the prices are in a highly volatile state. In August, there were 69 kinds of 139 kinds of chemical products that were tracked by the prices, which accounted for 49.6% of the prices in the month of July; there were 59 kinds of chemical products that accounted for 42.4%. Compared with the same period of last year, the prices were still high, and the prices of 139 chemical products tracked increased by 100% year-on-year, accounting for 71.9%, and the decline was 20, accounting for only 14.4%. Specifically in:
--- Stability of refined oil prices In August, international oil prices hit new highs, and international refined oil prices rose sharply. 95# unleaded petrol was US$71.1/barrel, up 6.9 US dollars from the previous month and up 10% from the previous month. .8%, up 39% year-on-year; diesel oil 72.2 US dollars / barrel, compared with the previous month little change, only up 0.2 US dollars, up 41% year-on-year; aviation kerosene 74.4 US dollars / barrel, than the previous month It increased by US$4.4, a 6.2% increase from the previous quarter and a year-on-year increase of 43.2%. However, domestic refined oil prices have not been raised, and the ex-factory prices of gasoline and diesel remain at the prices of 4,400 yuan/ton and 3,870 yuan/ton.
--- Fertilizer prices fall at a high level In August, the overall price of domestic fertilizer market fell. Among the 13 chemical fertilizer products that were tracked, the prices dropped by 10 kinds, accounting for 76.9%, compared with July. The prices of major fertilizer products such as urea, ammonium phosphate, and potassium chloride generally declined. In August, the national urea market average price was 1900 yuan/ton, which was 120 yuan/ton lower than the historical highest price of 2020 yuan in July, a decrease of 5.9% from the previous month, but it still rose by 10.1% year-on-year; the ammonium bicarbonate average The price was 520 yuan/ton, 5.5% month-on-month, and up 8.3% year-on-year; the average price of monoammonium phosphate market was 2,100 yuan/ton, down by 100 yuan per ton from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 4.5%, and year-on-year increase. 40%; the average price of diammonium phosphate market was 2,500 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan from the previous month, down 5.7% from the previous month and up 13.6% year-on-year; domestic potassium chloride price was 2,030 yuan / ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1 %, up 47.6% year-on-year. In addition, the prices of compound fertilizers also fell from July. The 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer was 1,900 yuan/ton, which was 15.6% lower than the previous month. The 45% chlorine-based compound fertilizer was 1,850 yuan/ton, a 9.8% decrease from the previous month.
———Fluctuation of basic chemical raw materials In August, the fluctuations of inorganic and organic chemical raw materials markets were relatively large and were mixed, but overall, the downward trend was still strong. Among the 26 kinds of inorganic chemical products that were tracked, prices fell by 15 kinds from the previous month, accounting for 57.7%, up by 11 kinds, accounting for 42.3%; the price of 62 kinds of organic chemical products tracked by the focus fell compared with the previous month. 33 species accounted for 53.2%; 24 species rose, accounting for 38.7%. Compared with the same period of last year, prices generally rose. The prices of the 26 kinds of inorganic chemical products and 62 organic chemical products tracked were 15 and 44 respectively, which accounted for 57.7% and 71% respectively. Among them, the price of soda ash ended the shady trend. With the recovery of demand and the rapid growth of exports, the price rebounded steadily. The price of heavy soda ash rose to RMB 1,550/ton, which was 6.9% higher than the previous month and was up 11.1% year-on-year. The caustic soda market weakened due to weaker sales momentum, and the price remained stable. The price of liquid caustic soda was RMB 545/ton, which was a decrease of 2.7% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 15.5%. The prices of hydrochloric acid, nitric acid, phosphoric acid, calcium carbide, and liquid chlorine all declined slightly. The price of organic chemical raw materials fluctuates in the high position. In August, the price of propylene was 9,500 yuan/ton, up by 3.3% month-on-month and up by 53.2% year-on-year. Toluene was 6,550 yuan/ton, down by 3.7% month-on-month, up by 7.4% year-on-year; and methanol, 2,500 yuan/ton by month. Declined by 8.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%.
———Rubber product prices generally rose August natural rubber No. 1 price 14,000 yuan / ton, unchanged from the same period last year, the chain rose 3.2%; No. 3 smoke film 14,500 yuan / ton, chain rose 5.1%, year-on-year increase 7.4%. The price of butadiene rubber in synthetic rubber was 15,800 yuan/ton, up by 2.6% month-on-month and up 15.8% year-on-year. The price of styrene-butadiene rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, up by 3.4% from the previous month and up by 9.5% year-on-year. Others such as nitrile rubber, EPDM rubber, chlorinated butyl rubber and other products prices have risen in different ranges.
———Synthetic resin rises and falls In August, the price of plastic resin in the domestic market rose and fell. In addition to polypropylene, the price of other products in the five general-purpose resins rose to varying degrees from the previous month. The largest increase was in polystyrene. In August, the market price was 12,000 yuan/ton, which was 7.6% higher than the previous month. However, it decreased by 14.3% year-on-year. The price of PVC dropped sharply in the previous period to RMB 6950/ton, which was 6.9% higher than that of the previous month and still decreased by 19.2% year-on-year. Some products such as epoxy, polyether, polycarbonate and other prices have declined.

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