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Zhao Jinping, vice minister of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out in the March 26th China Foreign Economic and Trade Spring Situation Analysis Conference on March 26th that although the short-term earthquake in Japan will cause problems in Chinaâ€™s related supply chain and the fluctuation of commodities including oil prices, In the long run, the earthquake is a good opportunity for China and Japan. He suggested that Chinese companies should seize the share of Japanâ€™s temporarily lost global exports.
However, whether Chinese companies have the strength to obtain these shares now still requires a question mark in the eyes of World Bank experts.
Analogical financial crisis For Chinese companies, the huge market that Japan has rebuilt will stimulate the export of building materials, food and other trades. In addition, Chinese companies have the opportunity to use the window period of some industries in Japan to establish comparative advantages.
Zhao Jinping said that for companies, it is necessary to study at this time, in which area you can replace the original Japanese share. "For example, through mergers and acquisitions, through the market to open up new channels."
He pointed out that the technological capabilities of Korean companies and Japanese companies are now closer to each other in the global supply chain, so this is a very rare opportunity for Korean companies. For example, the import of iPad 2 parts will soon be replaced. Japanâ€™s past position in the global supply chain, our Chinese companies should also seize this opportunity, and every industry and every industry has such opportunities.
"I spent the last week at the end of September last year doing research in Shenzhen and found that we have many companies that have fully exploited the opportunities that have existed since the financial crisis. Although strength is not enough, we have the funds to pull the R&D teams of multinational companies. I Seeing that one company has dug out the 300 R&D team of Siemens' most cutting-edge R&D department globally, it can become the strongest and most powerful company in the world in this field, and you will soon increase your global position."
In addition, he believes that it is also a good time to go to Japan to acquire companies. "Similar to the financial crisis, many Japanese companies were severely hit and faced great difficulties."
South Korea has more advantages?
Since the disaster was concentrated in the northeastern region of Japan, IT and auto parts manufacturers were concentrated here. The core competitiveness of the IT industry is upstream, that is, the core components, and Japan is playing an important role in supplying IT core components to the world.
To seize the opportunity for transformation, not only China but also South Korea. However, World Bank China chief economist Han Weisen believes that South Korea is more likely than China to seize this opportunity.
Han Weisen analyzed this reporter's report that the earthquake will not change the export share of China, Japan and Korea. In the export field, Japan may compete more with South Korea.
â€œChina may have unique advantages in wind power and solar applications, and it may compete with South Korea for market share, but overall, China is not a South Korean competitor.â€
He believes that China's export structure is still relatively unique. The main feature is that the economy is particularly large and the total amount of exports is particularly large, but overall the technological content may not be too large. China's export polarization is more severe. In some high-end areas, China may compete with Japan. In other areas, it may compete with some less developed countries.
A case provided by Zhao Jinping at the above meeting may give a footnote to the difficulty of Chinese enterprises in seizing this opportunity. He said: "For example, iPad, iPad 2, iPhone, and the production of electronic products, there are five parts that need to be imported from Japan. Because Japanese companies have been severely hit, they can't continue to provide spare parts for them, and they have to turn to other places for searching. Only one of these five parts can be imported from South Korea, and the other four cannot find suitable alternatives in the short term."
From the perspective of the overall import and export structure, in the imported structure of Japanese IT products, the import of assembly products may account for about 70%, but the import of components and parts is very small. From the perspective of exports, the export of components and parts accounts for 60% to 70%. %, but the export of real assembly is not very much.
This is exactly the opposite of the situation in China. Although the share of IT products or high-tech products in foreign trade exports has increased rapidly, from the analysis of the industry chain, only 30% of Chinese IT product exports are parts and components, and 70% are assembly products.
â€œThis reflects the contrast between China and Japan. With electronic products alone, China appears to be high in terms of global share, but in terms of core competitiveness, China still lags far behind Japan and lags behind South Korea.â€ Zhao Jinping pointed out.
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