Zhou Xi'an, Director of the Department of Comprehensive Affairs of the National Energy Administration, said on the 23rd that China's economy has continued its upward trend since last year and the energy economy has continued to recover steadily. At present, China's power investment structure is undergoing major changes. In the first quarter, clean energy power generation investment reached 28.4 billion, accounting for 60% of the total investment. At the same time, the Energy Bureau expects that energy demand in the second quarter will be “not off-season”.

Coal: "not off-season"

Zhou Xi'an stated that since the fourth quarter of last year, the area of ​​new real estate development has maintained a relatively high growth rate, and the pulling effect on the upstream industry has gradually emerged. It is expected that the output of electricity, steel, building materials and nonferrous metals industries in the country will continue to grow in the second quarter, directly stimulating the entire society. Coal demand. If the drought conditions in the southwest continue until mid-May, the hydropower output will still be constrained, and the local coal demand will increase over the same period.

“Although the second quarter is the off-season coal consumption, coal demand will be characterized by a non-light period in the off-season.” He said that on the supply side, due to successive safety incidents this year, the safety of coal mines in major provinces will increase in the next stage, and coal production will increase. The progress will be more rational. At the same time, Henan and other coal-producing provinces will comprehensively carry out coal resource integration this year, and coal production after Shanxi's integration will be released in the second half of the year. It is expected that the national coal output growth rate in the second quarter will fall somewhat.

With respect to coal imports, with the entry into force of the international coal trade contract in the new fiscal year, international coal and ocean freight prices have started to rise recently, and coal import advantages have weakened. The Energy Bureau expects that coal imports will decrease from April.

Electricity: demand remains high

The Energy Bureau stated that since the beginning of last year, the recovery of the domestic economy has mainly depended on the secondary industry. Currently, the momentum for rapid growth in the steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, and chemical industries remains the same. This year, the high load capacity in the northwest, north, and central China regions has remained high. The increase in electricity consumption in the industry has been maintained at a relatively high level. In addition, with the second quarter of the country gradually starting spring plowing, electricity for agriculture and rural production will also increase.

Therefore, the Energy Bureau predicts that the electricity consumption of the whole society will remain high, but taking into account that the electricity market has started to recover in the same period of last year, the base number is relatively high. Compared with the first quarter, it is expected that the increase in electricity consumption in the second quarter will fall back. There is more than enough power supply and demand balance.

Refined oil: consumption increase 5%

Regarding refined oil, the Energy Bureau believes that in the second quarter, as the economy continues to pick up, industrial production accelerates, and transportation continues to recover, diesel will enter a seasonal peak demand. As the weather turns warm, the vehicle trip rate will gradually increase. The rapid growth of car sales at the beginning of the year will provide support for the demand for gasoline in the latter part of the year; with the advent of summer, the use of oil for automotive air-conditioning will also gradually increase. In addition, the arrival of the peak season of air transportation in the second quarter, the opening of new domestic airports, the expansion and the opening of the World Expo will drive the demand for kerosene to continue to grow.

Energy expects that the apparent consumption of refined oil in the second quarter will be 5470-55.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of around 5%.

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