"Eleventh Five-Year Plan" faces the challenge of international situation


Compared with the previous five-year plan, the five-year plan discussed at the two sessions this year has a strong international background. The previous five-year plan basically did not take into consideration the international situation. It was a matter of closing the door to talk about the family. At present, China has begun to fully integrate with the world economy. A five-year plan for a rising power that is rising and is changing the world's political structure cannot be merely China's "internal affairs." All countries that want to deal with China must ponder over what the Chinese plan is all about. According to this new plan, we must determine the strategy and tactics for China in the next five years.

Especially energy.

Right now there is one.

At the beginning of 2006, with the imminent peak of the Iranian nuclear issue, the oil and gas cooperation between China and Iran has increasingly entered the eyes of Chinese and foreign media. Among them, the most eye-catching is the final signing of the 10 million tons of liquefied natural gas (US$70 billion) contract that China will supply to China every year for the next 25 years.

It is understood that the current global average consumption of natural gas accounts for about 24% of total disposable energy consumption, and China is only about one-tenth of its total. Therefore, whether in order to achieve the diversification of the energy structure or the needs of environmental protection, China can only increase the proportion of natural gas in disposable energy in the future. The "Eleventh Five-Year Plan Outline (Draft)" discussed at the two sessions proposed that priority should be given to the development of the energy industry, the development of natural gas, and the expansion of overseas cooperation and development. The National Development and Reform Commission and other relevant departments have also formulated more specific targets: to increase the proportion of natural gas in the one-time energy consumption structure to around 8% during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period.

Iran is the world’s second-largest natural gas reserve country after Russia. At the end of 2004, the proved reserves were 28.2 trillion cubic meters (China had only 223 million cubic meters of proven reserves in the same period), accounting for 16% of the world’s total reserves. Judging from the current development situation, the increase in natural gas production capacity in Iran will be formed from 2010 to 2030. Net exports will increase from 5.1 billion cubic meters in 2010 to 30.6 billion cubic meters in 2020 and 56.8 billion in 2030. cubic meter. If Iran can successfully use nuclear energy to replace gas-fired generating units, net exports may increase. The relevant experts of PetroChina recently disclosed that the national demand for natural gas in 2010 is expected to be 106.8 billion cubic meters. Apart from the domestic 84.6 billion cubic meters, there is still a gap of 22.2 billion cubic meters, and the gap in 2020 may increase to 83 billion cubic meters. Therefore, cooperation with Iran, a friendly neighbor, in natural gas, will be crucial to the development of China during the 11th Five-Year Plan period.

However, what was unexpected was that when Iran and China were preparing to start cooperation, some countries would talk about the Iranian nuclear issue for their own national interests and even created a situation where the war could be triggered at any moment. Some people even speculated that in the first year of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”, Iran’s contract to supply liquefied natural gas to China may come in the midst of gunfire. It can be said that China’s “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” was seriously challenged when it began. The challenge does not come from the domestic but from the international community.

This is a huge test for China. In other words, China must not only create a harmonious society internally, but also create a harmonious society in the world in order to ensure the peaceful development of China.

It is certain that when the two sessions of the year passed the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", it also indicates that China will face a greater international test. The previous globalization of human society in China was marginalized. Only this time China participated and became the protagonist. Therefore, in any case, China should seize this opportunity and strive for our national interests.

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