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PVC market ahead of time "into the winter" The amount of delivery did not see the price has a downward trend
After a relatively stable August, the PVC market started to decline in September. Currently, the prices of calcium carbide-based PVC in East and South China are hovering between 6,500 and 6,700 yuan per ton, with some areas reaching up to 7,000 yuan. In this downward trend, the price of calcium carbide-based PVC fell from a high of 7,500 yuan to around 6,500 yuan, marking a drop of 1,000 yuan. Despite the price decline, trading volumes have not significantly increased, and the market continues to show a downward pressure. The PVC market is entering an early winter phase.
The key factors behind the recent price drop and market fluctuations include:
First, a steady rise in supply. From January to August, domestic PVC production reached approximately 4.1 million tons, representing a 24.9% year-on-year increase. With the change in weather, the operating rates of calcium carbide producers have risen, as have those of ethylene-based manufacturers, leading to higher output. Additionally, several new projects, such as Shandong Haihua's 100,000-ton facility and Nanning Chemical’s 60,000-ton expansion, have further boosted PVC supply. This year, total domestic PVC production is expected to exceed 6.5 million tons. More new facilities are also set to come online, which will intensify the oversupply issue and make it harder for prices to remain stable.
Second, weak downstream demand. Typically, September and October are peak seasons for PVC demand, but this year’s peak season has been less pronounced. As a result, the traditional demand that usually supports PVC prices has turned out to be a bubble. Meanwhile, downstream construction activities are still ongoing, and the operating rate of hard product manufacturers hasn't picked up significantly. Due to macroeconomic controls and other factors, downstream demand for PVC has failed to meet expectations. This has created challenges for the newly expanded production capacity, directly affecting the market price. As temperatures drop, demand in northern regions has declined, causing an increase in the flow of goods from north to south, adding more pressure on the southern PVC market.
Third, the supply of raw material calcium carbide has eased. In August, due to environmental inspections and rising electricity costs in the northwest, calcium carbide prices surged. However, with the end of inspections and rising prices, the operating rates of calcium carbide producers have increased, leading to improved supply conditions. Prices have fallen by 50 to 100 yuan and continue to decline. At present, calcium carbide is no longer a major constraint on PVC production. Although crude oil prices have remained volatile at high levels due to various factors, its impact on the PVC market—dominated by the calcium carbide process—has gradually diminished.
Overall, the main driver of this price drop is the disruption of the supply-demand balance, with oversupply becoming increasingly evident and putting significant downward pressure on PVC prices. The market remains influenced by multiple bearish factors, and the oversupply issue is unlikely to resolve quickly. Downstream demand remains low, and this situation is not expected to change in the short term. Meanwhile, upstream low-cost supply helps ease inventory pressure, and downstream buyers’ cautious buying behavior is unlikely to shift soon. As a result, PVC prices may continue to fall in the near future.