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PVC market ahead of time "into the winter" The amount of delivery did not see the price has a downward trend
After a relatively stable August, the PVC market experienced a downward trend in September. Currently, the prices of calcium carbide-based PVC in East and South China are hovering between 6,500 and 6,700 yuan per ton, with some regions reaching up to 7,000 yuan. In this recent price adjustment, PVC from the calcium carbide method dropped from a peak of 7,500 yuan to 6,500 yuan—a decline of 1,000 yuan. However, despite the drop, trading volumes have not seen significant growth, and the overall price trend remains bearish. The PVC market seems to have entered an early winter phase.
The key factors behind the recent price drop and market fluctuations include:
First, an increase in supply. From January to August, domestic PVC production reached approximately 4.1 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.9%. With the change in weather, the operating rates of calcium carbide producers have risen, along with those of ethylene-based manufacturers, leading to higher output. Additionally, several new or expanded projects, such as the 100,000-ton facility in Shandong Haihua and the 60,000-ton expansion at Nanning Chemical, have further boosted PVC supply. This year’s total production is expected to exceed 6.5 million tons, and more new facilities are set to come online. As a result, the oversupply issue is becoming more pronounced, making it difficult for prices to sustain their levels.
Second, weak downstream demand. Historically, September and October are peak seasons for PVC demand, but this year’s peak has been less evident. The traditional demand boost from construction and manufacturing has not materialized as expected. Many downstream projects are still under way, and by late September, the operating rates of hard product manufacturers remained low. Combined with macroeconomic controls and other factors, demand for PVC has fallen short of expectations. This mismatch between supply and demand has put pressure on prices, especially as colder weather reduces demand in northern regions, increasing the flow of goods from north to south and adding to the pressure on southern markets.
Third, easing raw material supply. In August, due to environmental inspections and rising electricity costs in the northwest, calcium carbide prices surged. Small-scale producers also shut down, causing temporary shortages. However, as inspections concluded and prices stabilized, operating rates of calcium carbide plants increased, leading to improved supply conditions. Prices have since dropped by 50 to 100 yuan and continue to decline. At present, calcium carbide is no longer a major constraint on PVC production. Although crude oil prices have remained volatile at high levels, its impact on the PVC market—dominated by the calcium carbide process—has been diminishing.
Overall, the main driver of this price drop is the imbalance between supply and demand, with oversupply creating strong downward pressure on PVC prices. The market continues to face multiple bearish factors, and the oversupply issue is unlikely to resolve quickly. Downstream demand remains low, and this situation is expected to persist in the short term. Meanwhile, upstream suppliers are shipping low-cost materials, reducing inventory pressure, while downstream buyers remain cautious. As a result, PVC prices may continue to decline in the near future.